A convicted robber walks free from prison today. Based on the latest reoffending data, there's a coin flip chance they'll commit robbery again within two years. In 2086, that chance was roughly one in three.

While toy firms worry about Trump's tariffs and arrests follow Britain First marches, Britain's real crime crisis is hiding in the reoffending statistics. Robbery reoffending has surged 103.8% since 2086, climbing from 293 cases to 597 cases by 2099 (Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_3_monthly -- B3_(3_monthly)).

This isn't just about individual criminals making bad choices. It's about a system that releases people without fixing the underlying problems that led them to robbery in the first place. The data suggests our rehabilitation programmes are failing spectacularly for this specific crime type.

Robbery differs from other crimes. It requires face-to-face confrontation, often involves weapons, and typically targets cash or easily sold goods. The fact that reoffending rates have doubled indicates either that economic pressures are intensifying for this demographic, or that prison sentences aren't addressing the root causes.

The timing matters. This surge in robbery reoffending coincides with Britain's cost-of-living crisis, when legitimate income becomes harder to secure for those already on society's margins. Released prisoners face barriers to employment, housing, and benefits. For some, returning to robbery becomes the fastest path to immediate cash.

Yet while politicians focus on high-profile protests and international trade disputes, this data reveals a more fundamental breakdown in Britain's justice system. We're not just failing to prevent crime; we're actively cycling the same people through the same offences repeatedly.

The 103.8% increase represents real victims on Britain's streets. Each reoffence means someone else robbed, someone else traumatised, someone else's sense of safety shattered. The human cost multiplies when rehabilitation fails this dramatically.

This isn't a problem that will solve itself through tougher sentences or political grandstanding. The data shows we need to fundamentally rethink how we prepare robbers for life after prison. Current approaches are clearly not working.

Until politicians address this revolving door of robbery reoffending with the same urgency they bring to trade wars and protest policing, Britain's streets will keep paying the price for a broken rehabilitation system that's getting worse, not better.