While politicians argue over Trump's new 10% tariffs and their impact on British businesses, a quieter crisis has been unfolding in our justice system. 23.2% of convicted offenders now reoffend within two years of their original sentence, the highest proportion since the Ministry of Justice began tracking this data in 1933.

Back then, just 18% of criminals committed fresh crimes after conviction. That means today's reoffending rate has jumped 28.6% across nearly a century of records. Put another way: for every 100 people convicted of a crime in Britain today, 23 will be back in the dock within 24 months.

This isn't a recent spike. The data shows a relentless upward climb that survived two world wars, the creation of the welfare state, and decades of different approaches to criminal justice. What began as fewer than one in five offenders cycling back through the courts has become nearly one in four.

The timing couldn't be more awkward for a government already under pressure. While ministers focus on economic threats from across the Atlantic, they're presiding over a domestic system where criminals are more likely to reoffend than at any point in living memory. (Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_3_monthly -- A7a_(3_monthly))

This matters for more than just statistics. Every percentage point increase in reoffending represents thousands more victims, thousands more crimes that could have been prevented if the first conviction had actually worked. When nearly a quarter of all criminals are guaranteed to commit fresh offences, the justice system isn't deterring crime, it's processing it.

The pattern holds grim implications for public safety. If current trends continue, Britain is heading toward a place where one in three convicted criminals routinely reoffends. That would make a mockery of the entire premise of criminal justice: that punishment and rehabilitation can break the cycle of crime.

What makes this even more striking is the span of time involved. The 1933 baseline captures an era of very different social conditions, economic pressures, and criminal justice approaches. Yet across all those changes, through Depression and prosperity, the one constant has been an inexorably rising reoffending rate.

Ministers may be right to worry about trade wars and their economic fallout. But they're missing a domestic crisis that's been building for 90 years, one crime at a time.