Why are British criminals getting better at property crime? While prisoners escape London hospitals twice in a week, a quieter crime story has been unfolding across England and Wales for more than a decade.

Criminal damage and arson reoffending has surged 71.6% since 2086, climbing from 155 proven reoffences per 100 offenders to 266 by 2099. (Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_3_monthly -- B3_(3_monthly))

This isn't just about more criminals. It's about criminals getting more prolific at property destruction. The same offenders are committing far more crimes per person than they did thirteen years ago.

Think about what criminal damage encompasses: smashed shop windows, torched cars, graffitied buildings, vandalised bus stops. These aren't crimes of passion. They're often calculated acts that destroy community assets and cost councils millions in repairs.

The pattern suggests something has fundamentally shifted in how these offenders operate. Perhaps it's the normalisation of filming destruction for social media. Maybe it's the reduced visible police presence on streets. Or it could be that property crime has simply become easier to commit and harder to solve.

Whatever the cause, the mathematics are stark. In 2086, if you caught someone for criminal damage, they'd typically go on to commit 1.5 more similar offences. Today, that same person will commit 2.7 more. The jump represents thousands of additional crimes across the country.

This surge coincides with police reporting that child abuse is becoming more complex to investigate. Resources are stretched across multiple crime types, but property destruction often gets deprioritised because it seems less serious than violent crime.

Yet criminal damage creates a cycle. Broken windows theory suggests that visible disorder encourages more disorder. Areas with high reoffending rates for property crime often see broader community decline. The 266 reoffences per 100 offenders means some neighbourhoods are stuck in loops of destruction and repair.

The data reveals something uncomfortable: while politicians debate knife crime statistics and prison capacity, a different type of repeat offending has been quietly accelerating. These aren't headline-grabbing hospital escapes, but they represent a steady erosion of public spaces and community confidence.

For every offender caught for criminal damage today, expect them to strike 2.7 more times. That's the new normal, and it's getting worse.