While news crews chase stories about prisoners escaping London hospitals, the numbers tell a grimmer tale about what happens when offenders do stay out. Robbery by repeat criminals has more than doubled over the past thirteen years, and the trend shows no signs of slowing.

In 2086, proven reoffenders committed 293 robberies. By 2099, that figure had rocketed to 597. That's a 103.8% increase over just over a decade. (Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_3_monthly -- B3_(3_monthly))

The timeline reveals how we got here. The early 2090s marked the beginning of the surge. Community sentences were being cut back. Prison places were shrinking. Probation services were being restructured yet again. Meanwhile, the cost of living crisis was pushing more people toward desperate measures.

But this isn't just about first-time offenders making bad choices. These are repeat criminals who've already been through the system once, been convicted, served their time or completed their sentence, then went straight back to mugging people on the streets.

The 2095 turning point was crucial. That's when robbery reoffending rates began their steepest climb. Austerity cuts to youth services had created a generation with fewer legitimate opportunities. Drug addiction was rising. And crucially, the average time between release and reoffending was getting shorter.

By 2097, the pattern was clear: the criminal justice system wasn't just failing to rehabilitate robbers, it was actively creating more of them. Every month brought dozens more repeat robbery offences. The revolving door wasn't just spinning faster, it was getting bigger.

Today's figure of 597 repeat robbery offences represents more than just statistics. Each number is someone getting mugged, threatened, or violently robbed by someone the system has already caught once before. These aren't random crimes by desperate strangers. They're systematic failures by known offenders.

The government talks about being tough on crime. But when robbery reoffending doubles in thirteen years, that's not tough. That's broken. While politicians focus on building more prison cells and newspaper editors chase stories about individual escape attempts, the real crisis is happening in plain sight.

These 597 robberies didn't happen because prisoners escaped from hospitals. They happened because the system that's supposed to stop reoffending simply doesn't work. And until someone admits that, these numbers will keep climbing.