While the world debates AI safety in Delhi, a quieter crisis has been escalating in Britain's prisons. Violence behind bars has exploded to levels that would have been unthinkable just two years ago.

The numbers tell a stark story. In 2021, there were roughly 20 serious assaults per 1,000 prisoners. Not great, but manageable. By 2022, that had crept up to 23.7. Then 2023 happened.

Serious assaults rocketed to 39.0 per 1,000 prisoners last year. That's a 64% jump in just twelve months. (Source: Ministry of Justice, Safety in Custody -- safety-in-custody-assaults-dec-23 -- 3_1_Summary_assault_statistics)

To understand how we got here, you need to follow the timeline. The prison population has been climbing steadily since COVID restrictions lifted. Overcrowding returned with a vengeance. Staff shortages, which had stabilised during the pandemic's early phase, got worse as experienced officers left for better-paid work elsewhere.

Then came the cost-of-living crisis. Prison budgets, already stretched thin, couldn't compete with private sector wages. Training programmes were cut back. The officers who stayed found themselves managing more prisoners with less support.

The violence didn't happen overnight. It built gradually through 2022, then exploded in 2023. What changed? Three things converged. First, the prisoner population hit capacity limits not seen since before COVID. Second, a generation of experienced prison officers retired or moved on, leaving newer staff to handle increasingly volatile situations. Third, the prisoners themselves were dealing with longer sentences and fewer rehabilitation programmes.

The human cost is staggering. At current rates, you're looking at thousands of serious assaults each year. These aren't minor scuffles. The Ministry of Justice defines serious assaults as those requiring hospital treatment or causing permanent disability. Each statistic represents someone's son, father, or brother being seriously hurt.

But here's what the timeline also shows: this wasn't inevitable. The assault rate held relatively steady for years before this surge. The system worked, albeit imperfectly, when it had adequate resources and experienced staff.

Prison violence affects everyone. Officers work in fear. Rehabilitation becomes impossible when survival is the priority. Prisoners who might have turned their lives around instead learn that violence solves problems.

The 2023 surge represents a fundamental breakdown. A 64% increase doesn't happen because of minor policy tweaks or seasonal variations. It happens when a system reaches breaking point and snaps.

Britain's prisons have become warehouses where violence is the norm, not the exception. The timeline shows exactly when and how we lost control.